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"One of the ten best investing books of all time."--The Washington Post
One of investing's most celebrated icons updates his classic work to reflect today's world and markets
In this long-awaited and eagerly anticipated update, Jeremy iegel provides his legendary perspective and guidance to an investment world turned upside down. Stocks for the Long Run combines a compelling and timely portrait of today's turbulent stock market with the strategies, tools, and techniques investors need to maintain their focus and achieve meaningful stock returns over time.
This completely updated edition includes entirely new data, charts, and figures as it provides answers on the five major issues concerning investors and professionals today:
- How will events related to September 11 tragedy affect long-term market returns?
- What behavioral roadblocks stand in the way of achieving financial success?
- Are "countries" still relevant for global investing?
- Will stock "indexing" match its past performance?
- Can tomorrow's stock market deliver the same returns as markets in the past?
Praise for previous editions of Stocks for the Long Run:
"Should command a central place on the desk of any 'amateur' investor or beginning professional."--Barron's
"A simply great book."--Forbes
- Sales Rank: #898663 in Books
- Published on: 2002-06-21
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.10" h x 1.46" w x 7.50" l, 2.23 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 388 pages
Amazon.com Review
If anyone told you that investing in the stock market was the safest investment you could make, you might raise an eyebrow. However, if Jeremy Siegel tells you this, prepare to be convinced. Siegel's book, Stocks for the Long Run, is a comprehensive and highly readable history of the stock market that dramatically makes the case for long-term investing in stocks.
In summing up his approach to investing, Siegel writes, "Poor investment strategy, whether it is for lack of diversification, pursuing hot stocks, or attempting to time the market, often stems from the investor's belief that it is necessary to beat the market to do well in the market. Nothing is further from the truth. The principle of this book is that through time the after-inflation returns on a well-diversified portfolio of common stocks have not only exceeded that of fixed income assets but have actually done so with less risk. Which stocks you own is secondary to whether you own stocks, especially if you maintain a balanced portfolio."
Stocks for the Long Run considers subjects as diverse as the history of the various market indices and what makes for a business cycle to contrarian indicators and the utility of 200-day moving averages. If you've just come into investing in the last few years and feel the need for a solid and comprehensive text about the market, Stocks for the Long Run is probably the best primer available. It also works as an excellent reference for seasoned investors and anyone else interested in how the market works. --Harry C. Edwards
From Booklist
Given the daily and sometimes extreme fluctuations in the stock market, it takes an investor with both nerve and patience to build and maintain a long-term portfolio. But Siegel, a Wharton School professor of finance who directs the Securities Industry Association Institute, argues that, historically, stocks are safer and more productive, over the long run, than most other forms of investment. He explains how to calculate stock returns and examines some of the more technical aspects of analyzing stocks. Siegel also discusses the relationships between the economy, politics, and the stock market, offers basic trading rules, and lays out guidelines for building a portfolio. Though he covers some of the more sophisticated aspects of investing, Siegel targets a general but informed investing public. David Rouse
Review
"One of the 10 best investment books of all time....This is the buy-and-hold bible." ---James K. Glassman, The Washington Post, on 2nd edition Stocks for the Long Run
Most helpful customer reviews
98 of 103 people found the following review helpful.
The One Best Book On Stocks Since Graham
By gary alan chamberlain
The basic theme throughout is simply that stock returns (in all developed nations, though at differing slopes, pp. 88-90) regress to a mean, as bonds, and all other investment alternatives, do not. That’s one point. By taking the long historical view (from the dawn of the American republic), Siegel also demonstrates (Chapter 6, pp. 93-103) that in this country over periods of five years and longer, real stock returns (after inflation) stray from our mean return (6.5%) less and less, until at thirty years the observed deviations are half what standard statistics expect. So stocks are both much more volatile short-term—cf. Mandelbrot and Hudson, The (mis)Behavior of Markets—and much less volatile long-term, than Modern Portfolio Theory says they should be. That’s point #2. And, his third crucial point, value strategies (Chapter 12, pp. 173-193, on low-P/E, high-dividend stocks) consistently surpass the market indices by 2% or more in annual compounded returns. I know of no other book which has made any one of these three points so clearly and demonstrated them so forcefully with historical data and mathematical analysis. Ben Graham, to be sure, made the case for value investing decades ago, and does a better job of understanding and presenting the process than anyone else before or since, but of course he couldn’t come close to the range and depth of modern databases and computing power to undergird his argument. Siegel has written the one book since Graham’s Intelligent Investor that everyone should read and re-read before presuming to buy any security other than an index fund.
So, for instance, I needed to know that stocks have never failed to offer a positive real return over any period of seventeen years or more. Long-term bonds, in contrast, since the Civil War have outperformed stocks in just one 30-year period (by a minuscule .05% per year!), as interest rates fell from 16% in late 1981 to 2% in 2011—but the real return on these “safe” investments was negative for the entire post-war period before that, and likely will be for years to come. And Siegel repeatedly makes the point that especially when we think about retirement the only safety that matters is the assurance of rising purchasing-power over spans of decades.
The book is not without its limitations. I don’t think Siegel understands options or other derivatives; his faulty discussion of stock index options in the 4th edition has been abbreviated, but his remaining remarks are misleading at best. Consequently the major new sections in this edition, which deal with the recent financial crisis, while fairly sound (e.g. showing how slight a role Fannie and Freddy played), understate the impact of synthetic credit default swaps, which by the time the fever broke had made the subprime mortgage market five times larger than the mess the bankers and mortgage brokers had created in the first place. Hence next to no one had any idea how immense the problem really was, though a few (see M. Lewis, The Big Short) saw enough to profit hugely.
Other material in Siegel’s 378 pages adequately and sensibly covers major areas of historical interest (the primary stock indices, money, monetary policy and the gold standard), analyzes other financial and economic crises, surveys current issues (the business cycle, market responses to current events) and concerns (the developed world’s retirement “crisis”, on which he is quite optimistic), and I could cavil here and there or suggest other specialized treatments. But what he has to say on these topics is sufficient (and his history of the S&P 500 is excellent) for firmly embedding the three points with which I began, which are points every investor should ponder long and hard.
But how many of us will profit from them? On p. 97 he mentions the allure of “safer” alternatives which do after all outperform stocks, over periods of one or two years, nearly 40% of the time. I don’t know that he sees how deep the pain goes for individuals watching dollars vaporize by the thousands, dollars which a bank account would at least have preserved and guaranteed. Nor, I think, does he see how hard it would be for asset managers to follow his principles when markets soar and “irrational exuberance" reigns triumphant; sticking to a long-term strategy is impossible when benchmark risk means your assets are marching out the door. Siegel’s work will most benefit those who know not just the concepts but themselves. It hurts to play from behind, alone, trusting the odds, trying to trust yourself. Long-term investment is a discipline less of intellect than of temperament and character. But the discipline of study and thought is still part of it, and Siegel’s history and mathematics keep me mindful of what the true odds are. In this and earlier editions, Stocks for the Long Run is one of just six books (cf. my review of M. Mauboussin More Than You Know) which have decisively shaped how I think about what I do.
39 of 39 people found the following review helpful.
Still a Classic, but Added some Garbage and Omitted some Great Stuff from the 3rd Edition
By Tom
As an experienced investor who has read over a hundred investment books, Stocks for the Long run has always been in my top 5. Eager for updated data and analysis, I read the new 5th edition, but sadly, it added some uninsightful reviews of the credit crisis and took out some really good stuff, including data on returns following high sentiment, fed cuts, and economic cycles. One of my favorite items omitted was about the justified PE on the nifty fifty and what growth rates justify stock stock prices. Still a great book, but I think the 3rd edition is much better.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
I like listening to Siegel on XM radio
By kbw
I like listening to Siegel on XM radio, so thought I would try his book. I think this book is an excellent source on investing in the stock market and why it still makes sense to do so. I like that the edition has been updated reflecting more recent market events. I also like how the book explores different stock picking adages (e.g. sell in May and go away)...explaining if there is/was truth to them. One of the better books on investing.
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