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Praise for Digital Deflation:
"Technology, productivity, deflation, and wealth creation. It's all here, and Graham Tanaka is right on target!"
--Lawrence Kudlow, CNBC's "Kudlow & Cramer."
"Whether you're bullish, bearish or in between, this is an important book for all investors to read!"
--Dr. Edward Yardeni, Chief Investment Strategist, Prudential Securities
"Once in a great while, an original and thought-provoking book comes along. Digital Deflation is it--a must read!"
--Thomas R. Schwarz, former president and COO, Dunkin' Donuts, Inc.
"Graham Tanaka has sensed, well ahead of most, the issues surrounding the possible emergence of 'deflation.' He demonstrates that our measurement processes, tuned as they are to inflation, are not picking up the declines in real prices that are occurring--and that we are missing the implications for our economy and corporate strategies."
--William C. Dunkelberg, chief economist,
National Federation of Independent Business
"Consumers spend on goods and services with the greatest quality improvement rather than merely responding to price information. Thank Graham Tanaka for laying out this and other valuable insights in Digital Deflation. Read it."
--Wayne Angell, former Federal Reserve Governor
How the "digital revolution" is driving today's economy--and its impact on corporations, government policy, and the stock market
New technologies have transformed how today's economy works. Digital Deflationexamines this new economic environment, from how we got here to where we are going. Eye-opening yet solidly grounded, it explains how low inflation and interest rates, coupled with technology-driven productivity gains, will create massive wealth in the coming decades, and benefit stock market P/E multiples over the long term.
Combining insightful analyses with convincing charts and graphs, Digital Deflationprovides a clear understanding of how digital technologies will continue to alter every aspect of business. Readers will discover:
- Why inflation declined so dramatically in the 1980s and 1990s, and is likely to head even lower
- New measures of economic activity and how they will affect policy
- The laws of digital deflation--how they work and what they mean for corporate decision makers
- Sales Rank: #2623786 in Books
- Published on: 2003-08-22
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.10" h x 1.46" w x 6.20" l, 1.10 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 418 pages
From Publishers Weekly
Today's world of rapidly advancing digital technology, Tanaka argues, has created a rare phenomenon in the economy: superior products are being delivered to consumers at the same or lower prices than in years past. Tanaka, an economist and money manager, presents his theory of "digital deflation," which converts the improvement in performance and quality of a product or service into an annual percentage increase in real economic value for the consumer. If the government would combine this phenomenon with fiscal policy reforms and a more accurate counting of economic growth, Tanaka says, we would see higher employment rates, declining interest rates and rising stock prices. The book has the intensive, highly technical detail of a doctoral dissertation and is probably too dense for general readers, but those with expertise and interest in the field will find Tanaka's theory stimulating and thoroughly researched.
Copyright 2003 Reed Business Information, Inc.
From Booklist
We usually don't want to hear economists talk about deflation because it reminds us of what happened during the Depression, when prices and wages went into a downward spiral and jobs evaporated. But there is another type of deflation that economists rarely talk about, and that is when the quality of goods rises, yet prices remain stable--in other words, you get more for your money. This is an effect that has been unique to digital technologies, and these "cheaper, better, faster" products are what drove the so-called New Economy of the late 1990s. Tanaka has studied these trends and developed the theory of digital deflation, a phenomenon that he says the government has failed to account for in its economic data. Tanaka believes that digital deflation will allow the prosperity of the 1990s to continue, as digital technology pervades every aspect of our lives to increase both standards of living and job productivity at a low cost. This optimistic vision of the decade ahead includes some enlightening interviews with tech giants, such as Michael Dell and Gordon Moore. David Siegfried
Copyright © American Library Association. All rights reserved
About the Author
Graham Tanaka, C.F.A. is president, senior investment analyst, and portfolio manager for Tanaka Capital Management and the Tanaka Growth Fund. Tanaka was formerly a research analyst with Morgan Guaranty Trust and a vice president of Fiduciary Trust Company of New York.
Most helpful customer reviews
16 of 18 people found the following review helpful.
Blue Money Report
By Paul Petillo
Graham Tanaka was bouncing around the airwaves recently promoting his new book and the silly argument that productivity can be calculated according to the latest GDP. His 120% notion or as he explains it, 1% of increased productivity equals a 1.2% increase in GDP or 120% increase over nothing is a little risky of an assumption. The methodology used is at the heart of what many should begin to look at as a false recovery.
Tanaka, who seems like a very nice gentleman and noted economist as well is telling us that if inflation stays low, fiscal stimulus stays brisk and accommodative, and technology continues to increase at the same pace as it is currently occurring, this will force the cost of technology down while increasing productivity. The end result of all of that progress will be profits and prosperity for decades to come. Maybe, maybe not. If the current GDP numbers are any indication, technology had very little to do with it.
Last quarter was the result of more than just lower prices for technology - as yet in any real demand. It was rebates and tax cuts, a one time occurrence that primed the economic pumps, as well as still cheap refinance money and credit. This helped consumer drive their share of the market.
But productivity comes from business investing and that is still not quite there. That is largely because, no matter how business tries to calculate Mr. Tanaka's equation, a company must assume that the statistics published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are accurate. And they seem to not want to believe those numbers.
The BLS has the ability to keep inflation low as they incorporate what the Europeans call quality changes into their calculations. These quality changes, the assumption that quality changes will drive down prices as new products are introduced. For instance, computers are a million times faster than the first one built fifty years ago. If the BLS were to quantify such an assumption, these computers would be worthless. The cost of that first computer was a million dollars. Considering how fast they have gotten and how many are sold in the US each year (10 million), this would mean that the quality of the technology has increased 1 trillion dollars while at the same time lowering the price to, you guessed, it... nothing.
3 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
Insightful!
By Rolf Dobelli
Imagine that companies throughout the economy had access to new, better technology every year, and made better products without raising prices - in fact, while cutting prices. Now imagine that the regulators and policymakers used outmoded measurements and models that ignored these quality improvements and this downward price trend. Imagine that the Federal Reserve saw a risk of rising prices even when prices were falling. Imagine that the Fed kept tightening the economy unnecessarily, sending interest rates up, slowing growth, inducing stock market crashes and recessions, and doing the opposite of what it should. If you can imagine all this, you have a picture of U.S. economic reality as seen by author Graham Tanaka. It's a picture no one, especially investors, should disregard. We found his book immensely interesting - too long by half, with too many repetitious references to his previous publications (perhaps just his way of saying, "I told you so"), often tendentious and labored, but not to be ignored. Just be cautioned: this sounds somewhat like the bubble speak we heard at the end of 1999 and the beginning of 2000 - other times of strong growth without inflation.
10 of 12 people found the following review helpful.
Doesn't Make Sense
By Mr. Jones
Consider, the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers is below 2% and the current Fed Funds rate is 1%. Mr. Tanuka suggests that inflation is mismeasured and should be lower, thus the corrected CPI would be -1 to -2%. Of course the fed would counter by decreasing rates putting our economy solidly in a deflationary period. An awful state Japan has endured for years.
Would that mean the bank would pay me to borrow their money? Would I have to pay the bank to hold my money? This is left unaddressed.
The Europeans have argued for years that the U.S. government has not overstated but, "understated" inflation by using the same fancy tricks that Tanuka wants to use more of. This argument is left unaddressed.
Further, he says that as a result of this digital deflation, stocks should have higher multiples than they have now based on the inverse relationship between inflation and stock prices. But any 1st year math student will tell you that as inflation approaches zero (or negative in this case) the model breaks down.
This silliness and oversimplification I suppose is reflective of what our society has become. Fad based. Everyone wants to try the new diet, everyone wants to get rich quick, and every hack wants to write a book, but unfortunately does not want (or has not the capacity) to do any real thinking. My father always told me that if you don't understand something, then you shouldn't show people how dumb you are by talking. Sage advice Mr. Tanuka.
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